Per-token pricing tells you nothing about whether your product makes money. The number that belongs in a business model is cost per active user per month. It is derived, not quoted, and it exposes problems that a rate card cannot.
cost_per_user = requests_per_user × (input_tokens × input_price + output_tokens × output_price)
Everything else — caching, routing, retries — is a modifier on that expression. Build the base case first, then adjust.
Assume a chat product where an active user sends 40 messages a month, each with 1,500 input tokens (including conversation history) and 400 output tokens.
| Model | Input / 1M | Output / 1M | Cost per user / month |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 Luna | $0.10 | $0.50 | $0.014 |
| DeepSeek V4.1 Flash | $0.30 | $1.20 | $0.037 |
| Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite | $0.30 | $2.50 | $0.058 |
| Claude Haiku 4.5 | $1.00 | $5.00 | $0.140 |
| Claude Sonnet 5 | $2.00 | $10.00 | $0.280 |
| GPT-6 Astra | $10.00 | $50.00 | $1.400 |
The spread is roughly 100x between the cheapest and most expensive option for identical usage. On a $10 monthly subscription, that is the difference between healthy margin and losing money on every user.
Usage is never uniform. A small cohort of power users can consume an order of magnitude more than the median, and conversation history makes each message more expensive than the last. Without a cap, cost per user grows superlinearly with engagement — the opposite of what a subscription business needs.
Mitigations that work: cap history length with a rolling summary, tier the model by subscription level, rate-limit free accounts, and price the top decile of usage explicitly rather than averaging it away.
In a chat product, the system prompt and any attached reference material are stable across every message. That is exactly the pattern caching rewards. At a 90% cache hit rate on a 1,000-token system prompt, the input line for that portion falls to 90% of list price.
| Scenario (40 messages, 1,500 in / 400 out) | Cost per user / month |
|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet 5, no caching | $0.280 |
| Claude Sonnet 5, 90% cache hit on a 1,000-token prefix | $0.215 (23.1% lower) |
If cost per active user is $0.40 and your price is $10, gross margin is fine and the conversation is about growth. If cost per user is $2.50 on a $3 plan, no amount of prompt tuning saves the business — the pricing is wrong.
Compute the figure monthly, per cohort, and watch its trend rather than its level. A rising cost per user with flat revenue is the earliest signal of a problem, and it appears long before it reaches the invoice total.
Model your own numbers with the free calculator.